One-Hit-Wonders vs. Hit-Makers: Sustaining Success in Creative Industries
Dr. Justin Berg
Abstract
Creative industries produce many “one-hit-wonders” who struggle to repeat their initial success and fewer “hit-makers” who sustain success over time. To develop theory on the role of creativity in driving sustained market success, I propose a path dependence theory of creators’ careers. The theory considers creators’ whole portfolios of products over time and how their early portfolios shape their later capacity to sustain success. The main idea is that creators’ paths to sustained success depend on the creativity in their portfolios upon their initial hit—relatively creative portfolios give creators more options for leveraging their past portfolios while adapting to market changes, increasing their odds of additional hits. The proposed theory was tested using an archival study of the U.S. music industry from 1959-2010, including data on over three million songs by 69,050 artists. Results largely supported the hypotheses. Artists who reached their initial hit with relatively creative (novel or varied) portfolios were more likely to generate additional hits, but novel portfolios were less likely to yield an initial hit than typical portfolios. This meant that artists faced a tradeoff between their likelihood of initial vs. sustained success. This research uncovers important theoretical insights on creativity and innovation over time.